This strategy had back-to-back strong performances in Q2 and Q3.
Did it finish the year strong with another stellar run in Q4?
In this revised version of the Short-Term Bollinger Reversion Strategy, I’m waiting for RSI to cross above or below oversold or overbought levels to indicate a bit more momentum in the direction of the trade.
Make sure you review the tweaks here.
And I know I haven’t really covered the position sizing rules for this system just yet but, for simplicity’s sake, I decided to assume a 1% risk per trade in order to help me analyze total performance.Since I’m running this strategy on a per pair basis, I crunched the numbers for USD/CAD first:
Out of 14 valid signals for the quarter, USD/CAD was able to win 9 trades or 64.29% of it all.
It’s not too far away from the previous quarter’s 75% win rate, but its total winnings of 16 pips or 0.32% ain’t so impressive.It had a maximum winning streak of four trades that racked up 2.30% in gains, but this was mostly erased by five losing trades that averaged 0.66% in losses.
As in previous periods, its average win is still smaller than its average loss of 1.00%.
Did CAD/CHF fare much better? Here are the numbers:
This pair also closed out in the green, as it caught 12 wins out of 17 valid signals or 70.59% of its positions.
It didn’t fare much better than USD/CAD since it bagged merely 5.5 pips or 0.11% for Q4.Now that pales in comparison to the previous quarter’s 2.37% in gains or Q2’s 6.59% win.
Still, it had a pretty decent winning streak of five trades versus the longest losing streak of three. Unfortunately its expectancy was bogged down by a small average win of 0.19% versus the average loss of 0.44%.
To sum it up, this Short-Term Bollinger Reversion Strategy 2.0 closed out with a measly 21.5-pip or 0.43% gain for Q4 2021.
It’s not exactly the strong finish I had been hoping for, but at least it ain’t a loss.
Besides, that adds up to a grand total of 544.5 pips or 10.89% in winnings this year!